Artificial Intelligence will change the dynamics of international affairs in near future
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- Introduction:
Human history is driven by conscious, collective and interactive human actions. Scholars have been analyzing human history to understand politics. The contemporary and potential advancement in Artificial Intelligence (Henceforth AI), is changing the basic understanding of human history and hence politics as well. Even though we already coexist with limited forms of AI, the increased use of it will bring radical change in dynamics of the world. This does not mean AI will thoroughly replace humans, but they will be significant even in the process of decision making. To make AI impactful, humans need to have the clarity of AI’s purpose; alterne heavily dependent on AI for data analysis. However, the results of such analysis are mostly based on empirical data and hence it lacks compassion. Computing power, big data, empirical analysis are the things significant to AI. Humans have to be cautious while using it with talented engineers and innovation.
In this report, I will be discussing the changing dynamics of international affairs, incorporating AI in three core areas: Diplomacy, Warfare and Human Security.
1. Diplomacy:
‘Diplomacy isa process between actors who exist within the system and engage in private and public dialogue to pursue their objectives in peaceful manner.’ Diplomacy is an instrument of foreign policy. This underlines the importance of diplomacy in international affairs and, with the increasing use of AI, the nature of diplomacy is evolving.
Currently, AI is effective mostly in broad areas of policy like economy, business, and security. The agenda of AI in diplomacy is restricted to supporting the day to day functions of diplomats. The governments are under utilizing the benefits of AI in the sector of diplomacy. For example AI can be used to influence Diaspora to strengthen the soft power of the state. States like India have huge Diaspora all around the world. India could use AI to collect the data and classify it into multiple categories (Mentioned in Figure: 1). Based on the data gathered, India could determine its strategy for cultural diplomacy. In contemporary world, soft power is a method to influence the world.AI could prove great help in this field.
Diplomats must be tough and effective negotiator with analytical temperament. It is an elementary feature of an AI. Hence AI can be used in the area of modeling complex negotiation, monitor implications of international law, framing treaties etc. In addition to this there won’t be any question of loyalty as AI works on program, which has to be drafted with extra care. AI will probably change the way policy makers look and understand world. In addition to this AI ill introduce new uncertainties and complexities in decision-making protocols; hence, in diplomacy AI must not take the position of decision-maker as the system lacks the cognitive element that aids in rational understanding of the world.
Figure 1: Diaspora can be divided into above categories
2. Warfare:
War is nothing but a struggle for power. Countries have always tried to defend themselves and control others. Every commercial or military innovation will ultimately add to the strength of the nation. AI is another transitional step. There will be different type of AI in warfare. The power of AI is demonstrated through UAVs, computers, GPS, infrared, radar etc.AI runs on the basis of rule based reasoning which is considered to be an ideal way of decision making. However, it is often difficult for AI to perceive the application of the appropriate set of rule sat the given situation. Hence we do not see independent AI taking decisions without intervention by humans. Furthermore, there is high risk of interface-malfunction between AI and instructions given by humans. Unlike humans, AI cannot understand the nuances of words, hence surveillance and reconnaissance is considered to be best area for AI to develop.
There are multiple reasons for limited use of AI in warfare, like, unforeseen technical issues, organizational or cultural barriers, lack of support from government etc. However, the commercial sector of AI is growing fast. If, government is not controlling the progress of AI, it is highly possible that commercial sector will take over the security brackets, which will ultimately lead towards the domination of commercial sector in international system. In such case, even the nature of war cannot be imagined.
Along with this, if decision is taken by AI without human intervention then there is no question of personal responsibility for respective action. In case of nuclear warfare, this danger is even more prominent
Meanwhile, we need to remember, AI is not expected to substitute human intelligence or personnel to lead to the complete automation of war. Instead, it is anticipate that human judgment will continue to become more difficult, distributed, and complex in military organizations.
3. Human Security:
AI can contribute a lot in human security as it has broad nature. Human security has multiple dimensions too like, economic, health, food, environment, political, personal, community etc. The Rawlsian principle of justice and even Gandhian principle of Antyodaya aims to give the greatest benefit to the least-advantaged members of society. AI is one of the ways to make it a reality. There are three constraints on human security related activities:
• the inability to know about threats in advance
• the inability to plan appropriate courses of action to meet these threats
• the lack of capacity to empower stakeholders to effectively respond
Thousands of life can be saved by addressing these constraints. AI has the capacity to manage, sort and analyze huge data sources. If this capacity is utilized appropriately to maintain human security, it can change the dynamics of international power structures. For example, since the 1990s, AI has been used to diagnose various types of diseases, such as cancer, multiple sclerosis, pancreatic disease and diabetes. AI’s ability to classify and identify images allows it to recognize patterns more quickly and accurately than people. This has been particularly true in the diagnosis of certain types of cancer. Such developments in the field of human security helped countries not only to grow their economy but also to become significant player at international level. Even India, in pandemic 2020-21, invested in human security and now is considered as world savior for providing vaccines. This has changed the perspective of the world about India.
However, AI is not yet able to reason as humans do. Plus, the technology is far from being a substitute for general human intelligence. However, as AI is dealing with humans it is necessary to provide normative guides, but these norms must be extremely explicit.
The use of AI is one potential way to enable real-time, cost-effective and efficient responses to a variety of human security-related issues. However, it should be noted that AI is not an elixir.
Conclusion:
The use of AI is based on the qualities & limitations human and AI possesses. It is impossible to predict the future with AI, however there are some pointers, which can be adopted by governments to have safe transformation:
• The use of AI should be based on three important pillars: equitability, transparency, accountability. Universal rules and regulations have to be made at world forum.
• The government should create awareness about different types of AI. Humans should get acclimatize with visible and influential existence of AI.
• Governments should create strong relations with private institutions particularly in the field of defense for innovation and controlled development
• There is lot scope for AI in diplomacy. It has to be explored more passionately.
• The knowledge and existence of AI should not be privilege of developed countries. Smaller, under-develop and developing countries too need access of this technology.
• The result of analysis done by AI should be shared with the world.
There will be many instances where AI will challenge human intelligence. However, there has to be clear demarcation of the roles of AI and humans. To maintain balance between the two is the most difficult task. If humans can create AI, they can destroy it too.
Sources:
1. https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/department-defense-artificial-intelligence-and-healthcare
2. https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/artificial-intelligence-and-national-security
3. https://sipri.org/sites/default/files/20201/sipri_report_responsible_artificial_intelligence_research_and_innovation_for_international_peace_and_security_2011.pdf
4. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3376302
5. https://www.geopolitic.ro/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/EDAWorkingPaper_ArtificialIntelligence_ENcopy.pdf
6. https://afyonluoglu.org/PublicWebFiles/Reports/AI/ChathamHouse-2017-05 advancing%20Human%20Security%20through%20AI.pdf
7. https://sipri.org/sites/default/files/2019-05/sipri1905-ai-strategic-stability-nuclear-risk.pdf
8. https://www.brookings.edu/research/artificial-intelligence-in-war-human-judgment-as-an-organizational-strength-and-a-strategic-liability/
9. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/fp_20201130_artificial_intelligence_in_war.pdf
10. https://thefuturesociety.org/2021/02/25/national-ai-policies-for-inclusive-sustainable-development/